Macro dashboard · FRED data
US macroeconomic indicators
Live data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) service. Understand the economic environment shaping every company you research.
Economic Regime — Growth & Inflation Framework
Current Macro Regime
Inflationary Boom
Growth ↑ · Inflation ↑
The economy is growing but prices are rising faster than the central bank wants. Real assets and commodities shine. Growth stocks suffer as discount rates rise. The Fed is typically tightening.
CPI YoY
3.3%
↑ Rising
IP Growth YoY
+0.7%
↑ Rising
Economic Machine — Where We Are Now
Inflation
Growth
↑ Rising
↓ Falling
→ Expanding
← Contracting
Asset class performance in this regime
Strong buy
Commodities
Direct inflation beneficiary — oil, metals, agriculture.
Strong buy
Energy Stocks
Rising prices flow straight to earnings.
Strong buy
TIPS
Principal adjusts with CPI. Direct hedge.
Strong buy
Real Assets
Tangible assets preserve value against inflation.
Moderate
Value Stocks
Financials and industrials benefit from rising rates.
Weak
Growth Stocks
Rising discount rates compress future-earnings multiples.
Avoid
Long-term Nominal Bonds
Fixed coupon eroded by inflation. Duration is a liability.
Closest historical parallels
Post Dot-com Bust
2001–2002
CPI YoY
+1.8%
Growth YoY
+0.5%
Regime
Goldilocks
Mild growth, benign inflation. Tech fell; value held.
Post-GFC Recovery
2010–2011
CPI YoY
+3.2%
Growth YoY
+2.5%
Regime
Inflationary Boom
Commodity-led rebound. Energy and materials outperformed.
Post-Hike Soft Landing
2023–2024
CPI YoY
+3.5%
Growth YoY
+2.5%
Regime
Inflationary Boom
Inflation easing but above target. Resilient growth. Mixed assets.
Growth measured by Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) YoY. Inflation measured by CPI YoY vs 2% Fed target. Data via FRED (Federal Reserve). Historical analogs matched by Euclidean distance. Not financial advice.
How should your portfolio be positioned for this regime?
Open the Portfolio Analyser pre-loaded with the optimal allocation for the current inflationary boom environment — then compare against your real holdings.
Sector Rotation — GICS Analysis
Sector Rotation
Sectors ranked for Inflationary Boom
1
Industrials
XLI$174.58+2.74%
Strong buy★★★★★
2
Energy
XLE$59.65+1.05%
Strong buy★★★★★
3
Materials
XLB$51.47+1.00%
Strong buy★★★★★
4
Financials
XLF$52.13+0.40%
Overweight★★★★★
5
Technology
XLK$159.50+0.25%
Neutral★★★★★
6
Communication Services
XLC$116.51+1.06%
Neutral★★★★★
7
Consumer Discretionary
XLY$118.35+1.29%
Neutral★★★★★
8
Healthcare
XLV$145.99+2.21%
Neutral★★★★★
9
Real Estate
XLRE$44.40+1.74%
Neutral★★★★★
10
Consumer Staples
XLP$84.31+1.68%
Underweight★★★★★
11
Utilities
XLU$46.85+2.56%
Underweight★★★★★
ETF prices via Yahoo Finance · Rankings derived from 1973–2024 sector return data · Not financial advice
US Treasury Yield Curve
✓
Yield Curve Normal
10-Year yield is above 2-Year — long-term borrowing costs more than short-term
10Y − 2Y spread
+0.33%
US Treasury Yield Curve
CMT rates — Federal Reserve · 2026-04-29
| Tenor | Yield | vs 1Y ago | vs 2Y ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 3.68% | -0.66% | -1.83% |
| 3M | 3.68% | -0.64% | -1.78% |
| 6M | 3.73% | -0.49% | -1.69% |
| 1Y | 3.75% | -0.20% | -1.41% |
| 2Y | 3.92% | +0.18% | -0.95% |
| 5Y | 4.05% | +0.17% | -0.52% |
| 10Y | 4.25% | -0.25% | -8.07% |
| 30Y | 4.98% | +0.24% | +0.26% |
Constant Maturity Treasury (CMT) rates from the Federal Reserve. Updated daily. Historical comparisons use the closest available trading day.
Economic Surprise Tracker
Economic surprise data builds up over time as releases are recorded. Check back once the economic calendar has collected a few weeks of actuals.
Market Sentiment
Equity Market Sentiment
Extreme Greed
1 signal · updated 09:21 AM
VIX (Volatility Index)17
Moderate volatility — neither fearful nor complacent
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
Historical trend
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
Crypto Fear & Greed
Fear
1 signal · updated 09:21 AM
Crypto Fear & Greed26
Alternative.me composite — tracks BTC volatility, volume, social sentiment, and search trends. Tends to lead equity risk appetite.
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
Historical trend
Extreme FearFearNeutralGreedExtreme Greed
Cross-Asset Snapshot
Commodities
Energy
WTI Crude · Average Price Trend
5-day and 21-day moving average comparison — a directional indicator used in fuel pricing analysis
Previous period
Current period
Period average (SMA)
Weekly (5-day) · Previous 5 days vs prior 5 days
Weekly · 5-day SMA
↑ 10.59%Current avg
$102.84
Previous avg
$92.99
Directional signal: The weekly crude average is higher than the prior period. Pump prices typically reflect the weekly crude average with a 1–2 week lag.
Monthly (21-day) · Current 21 days vs prior 21 days
Monthly · 21-day SMA
↑ 5.56%Current avg
$98.34
Previous avg
$93.16
Directional signal: The monthly crude average is higher than the prior period. Monthly pump price reviews (common in regulated markets) track the 21-day crude average. A persistent trend is a stronger signal than a single week.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or commodity trading advice. Moving average comparisons are descriptive indicators, not predictions. Actual pump prices are determined by retailers, distributors, taxes, refining margins, currency exchange rates, and regulatory frameworks — factors not captured here. Fisclear accepts no liability for decisions made based on this content. Always consult a qualified professional before acting on market data. Terms & Conditions
Currencies
Volatility
Bonds
Key signals
Fed rate: 3.64%
Policy is accommodative. Lower borrowing costs support corporate investment and equity valuations.
10Y Treasury: 4.25%
Long rates are moderate. Equity risk premium is supported relative to bonds.
Unemployment: 4.3%
Labour market is tight. Consumer spending remains supported — a positive for consumer-facing companies.
5-year history
Source: FRED / Federal ReserveFederal Funds Rate
3.64%
The interest rate set by the Fed for overnight bank lending.
Low 0.06%Now 3.64%High 5.33%
View full chart →
10-Year Treasury Yield
4.25%
Benchmark borrowing cost for mortgages, corporate bonds, and equity valuation.
Low 1.28%Now 4.25%High 4.80%
View full chart →
CPI Inflation Index
330.3
Consumer Price Index — the broadest measure of price inflation in the US.
Low 268.38Now 330.29High 330.29
View full chart →
M2 Money Supply
$22.69T
Broad money supply — cash, deposits, and money market funds.
Low $20.5TNow $22.7THigh $22.7T
View full chart →
Industrial Production
101.8
Fed index of real output for manufacturing, mining, and utilities.
Low 98.86Now 101.79High 102.34
View full chart →
Unemployment Rate
4.30%
US civilian unemployment rate — a key indicator of labour market health.
Low 3.40%Now 4.30%High 5.90%
View full chart →
See how macro affects individual companies
Every company report shows how the current macro environment affects that specific business.
Browse company reports →